Modern wars tend to either create new technologies or accelerate their adoption. The Iran conflict has already left its mark on the world of cryptocurrency, producing new intelligence challenges, but also opportunities. Three stand out:

1. “Monitoring The Situation” dashboards multiply

The recent surge in vibe-coded OSINT dashboards combining maps and news feeds for “monitoring the situation” as the Iran conflict erupted, has been widely discussed. While visually impressive, these platforms do not always allow users to add in custom sources or to refine their confidence and severity estimates for reported events. What’s more, many of these platforms use feeds from prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where cryptocurrency is staked on the outcomes of real world events, including geopolitical ones. These platforms do not consistently yield the most accurate predictions.

2. Prediction markets becoming the story

Prediction markets existed long before the crypto versions hit the scene. These markets are based on the premise that people with a financial stake in the outcome of a prediction, make more accurate predictions. However, this logic should raise concerns given that over half of all cryptocurrencies have failed, and that markets are not immune to irrationality. Political wagers on prediction markets have skyrocketed in value, but there is a risk of these platforms influencing the events they are predicting. For example, Times of Israel journalist Emanuel Fabian claims he was threatened by users of Polymarket—who had bet that no missile would strike Israeli territory on a specific date—to pressure him to alter his reporting in their favour.

More alarming still is how the pseudonymous nature of crypto platforms can enable insider trading to occur, potentially raising national security breaches. Facing political pressure, Polymarket and Kalshi have recently introduced insider trading bans although the effectiveness of these bans remains to be seen.

3. Markets take weekend breaks. Blockchains do not.

In March, enterprising blockchain enthusiasts launched a highly successful contract for Brent crude futures trading on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid. While not the first, and not without risk, these contracts enable continuous trading of assets that are not typically available to retail investors over the weekend. The appeal is obvious: they allow instant reactions to geopolitical shocks, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rather than forcing traders to wait for markets to reopen.

A similar dynamic is driving increased weekend activity in “tokenised gold,” digital assets such as Tether Gold (XAUt), which are backed by the company’s reported reserves of nearly 140 tonnes of physical gold. As these markets mature, such virtual assets are likely to appear more frequently in customer portfolios.

From a due diligence perspective, prediction markets and decentralised exchanges offer a key advantage: a permanent public record on the blockchain. This makes it possible to scrutinise the history of a trader’s wallet addresses in far greater detail, helping to surface potential risks.

FACT’s expertise highlights risks associated across both conventional and digital assets.