The US-Israeli-Iranian conflict is sending shockwaves through the global economy – and the financial risks for businesses operating in or near the region are mounting by the hour.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital channel that lies at the heart of global commerce. Security threats to this corridor, combined with the shutdown of gas plants and oil refineries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), have caused world energy prices to skyrocket. Qatar’s LNG (liquified natural gas) production alone accounts for roughly 20 percent of the global supply – stakes could not be higher. As traditional routes become untenable, stakeholders will scramble for replacements. Finding immediate alternatives for energy could be ‘challenging’ and ‘diplomatically complicated’ as an S&P report explains. FACT estimates that this may give rise to new actors, unknown risks, and unchartered supply chains.

The impact of the military conflict on businesses and financial entities is already tangible: a drone strike on AWS infrastructure in UAE and Bahrain on 2 March suspended crucial services across those jurisdictions and disrupted the IT services of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. This is a clear example of how conflict can bleed into the commercial world. As recently noted by the Stimson Center, the GCC simply “cannot afford another conflict”.

For due diligence professionals, this landscape demands heightened vigilance. The expansion of sanctions on Iranian financial channels, IRGC-affiliated entities, and regional proxies is rapidly transforming compliance frameworks. Sudden offshore restructuring, atypical corporate formations, and irregular payment routing are increasingly recognised as potential indicators of concern. UBO verification, banking chain analysis, and sector reclassification based on the new status quo are no longer optional – they are essential.

At FACT, our enhanced due diligence capabilities, combined with extensive regional expertise, are designed for precise intelligence analysis that adapts swiftly to the evolving landscape.